One year out from the 2024 primaries, here is the debut Fox News national survey on the presidential nomination races. Spoiler alert, former President Donald Trump looks formidable, while President Biden faces doubt.
Republican primary voters were read a list of 15 announced and potential candidates for the 2024 nomination. Trump tops the list with 43%, followed by Ron DeSantis at 28%, Nikki Haley and Mike Pence at 7% each, and Greg Abbott and Liz Cheney at 2% each.
All others receive 1% or less. Even at this early stage, only 3% are unsure of their pick.
Among Republican primary voters, men, women, those under and over age 45, and those without a college degree all put Trump first and DeSantis second. The Florida governor is ahead among those with a college degree and those who think Biden was legitimately elected, and the two are within a point or so among suburban voters and those with higher incomes.
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“Currently, the GOP primary dynamics are simple,” says Daron Shaw, a Republican, who conducts the Fox News survey with Democrat Chris Anderson. “DeSantis needs Trump to falter because most of the former president’s supporters see the Florida governor as the second-best choice. At the same time, other candidates need DeSantis to falter because his supporters have no single fallback option and would be up-for-grabs should he flame out.”
Trump tops Haley by 66-24% in a matchup between the two announced GOP candidates. (Businessman Vivek Ramaswamy announced his candidacy mid-survey.)
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While 37% of Democratic primary voters want to keep Biden as their party’s nominee, a majority of 53% says they would like someone else to run.
That support for Biden pales in comparison to what Trump received four years ago. In February 2019, at this same point in the election cycle, 72% of GOP registered voters wanted to keep Trump as their party’s nominee – nearly double Biden’s current support.
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Meanwhile, 84% of Democratic primary voters approve of the job Biden is doing as president.
“They like him and the job he’s doing, even if they might wish for an alternative in 2024,” says Anderson.
Roughly equal numbers say they plan to participate in the Democratic (40%) and GOP (41%) primary or caucus in their state. Four years ago, in March 2019, it was 41% Democratic and 38% Republican.
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Overall, 77%, favor requiring mental competency tests for politicians over age 75.
Fifty-one-year-old Haley suggested the cognitive exams during the first week of her 2024 campaign. The tests would apply to both Biden (age 80) and Trump (age 76).
More Millennials (83%) and Gen Xers (84%) want the tests than Baby Boomers (66%), and more Republicans (87%) and independents (74%) favor them than Democrats (67%).
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Conducted February 19-22, 2023, under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News Poll includes interviews with 1,006 registered voters nationwide who were randomly selected from a voter file and spoke with live interviewers on both landlines and cellphones. The poll has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points for all registered voters and plus or minus 4.5 points for Democratic and Republican primary voters.
Fox News’ Victoria Balara contributed to this report.